Census overhaul sparks Pasifika 'invisibility' fears

Pacific data experts warn reforms to the way the New Zealand government collects community-level data will "fail Pasifika communities".

Last month, Stats NZ announced that it was scrapping the five-yearly national census, as it shifts to "targeted" surveys to fill in administrative data gaps.

However, the Pacific Data Sovereignty Network (PDSN), a committee of academics, business leaders and other experts, says that the move risks "locking in invisibility" for Pasifika communities if current data systems are not fixed.

The Cabinet set its sights on "modernising" the census in March 2024, with a focus on financial sustainability.

A briefing from October 2024 noted the 2023 Census cost "approximately $326 million over five years - a significant increase from the 2018 Census ($126m) and the 2013 Census ($104m)."

According to the briefing, Budget 2024 set aside less money for the next Census (in 2028), than what it did for 2023, even though costs are trending up.

To save money, the government will pursue an "administrative data-led approach" with a smaller annual survey and various "targeted surveys". Stats NZ said this would "increase the flexibility and responsiveness to meet data needs" and "improve data quality over time", while reducing costs.

Administrative data is made up of information government agencies collect when doing their normal work, such as health and education records.

Various data collection programmes, such as the Household Economic Survey, will fill in these gaps when further insights are needed.

That briefing noted that the reforms would carry "an initial reduction in the quality of some census data, particularly regarding some data for smaller population groups (e.g. Pacific people and disability communities)".

As the government implements these reforms, data from Census 2023 will be relied on until 2030, after which point the new "census" will be released annually.

PDSN member Dr Jacinta Fa'alili-Fidow told RNZ Pacific that this is the key flaw that makes Pacific populations "invisible" in the Census.

"Shifting to an admin-data first model risks locking that invisibility in for years to come. Unless there is radical improvement in how Pacific data is collected, governed and reported, this approach will fail our communities."

Dr Fa'alili-Fidow said other flaws include low trust levels among Pasifika communities, which causes low survey response levels.

This links back to the premise that data systems reflect mainstream worldviews, not Pacific models of wellbeing or identity, she said.

And due to those broad categorisations, and the fact that Pacific data with those key details are often aggregated, Dr Fa'alili-Fidow said that the approach is doomed to fail without input from Pacific stakeholders.

"There is no information being provided from Stats NZ about the surveys that will be needed to cover the flaws in administrative data.

"Pacific leadership must sit at the governance table for how this new census model is built and implemented, the social license for the use of administrative data in this way, and the ability to deliver the necessary surveys to cover the gaps."

Issues for Pasifika

A regulatory impact statement (RIS) from April 2025, shortly before the reforms were announced, stated that the current Census approach fails Pasifika and other minority communities, including Māori.

The current approach delivers low response levels from these populations, creating high-risk to data quality, the briefing argued.

"Stats NZ did not meet its target response rates for Māori, Pacific peoples, or younger adults in the 2023 Census," it stated.

While the new admin-led data approach would solve the timeliness problem, the RIS acknowledged it does not capture key details in its measure of smaller populations, due to the broad categorisations made at the point of collection.

"To provide accurate population data for small ethnic communities, including smaller groups of Pacific populations such as Kiribati or Pitcairn Islanders, government agencies would need to consistently collect more detailed ethnicity data."

The RIS warned that, without a solve for these issues, Māori and Pasifika populations would be "significantly disadvantaged compared to other groups" in terms of government policymaking.

Statistics Minister Dr Shane Reti told RNZ Pacific that once everything has shaped out, there will effectively be a census every year.

"My expectation is that while there may be a small downturn in the data quality initially, that over time builds up."

"All the communities, or as many as we can, that may not be well represented in administrative data, I'd like to see our best efforts at picking them up, both through the community attribute surveys and through the targeted surveys."

Reti said that those surveys are being worked through, but did not provide a timeline for when that information would be made public.

Labour's Statistics spokesperson Lemauga Lydia Sosene told RNZ Pacific that this is her key concern.

"Sometimes departments have a system of collecting data that may not necessarily reflect the voice of that community."

"They may not have had a resource allocation to allow officials to attend a community event... in terms of Pasifika communities, they will express levels of mistrust because there's only a certain amount of interaction that can take place."

Sosene said that as a member of the Pasifika community, her way of collecting data is through attending community events and having deeper conversations.

"I'm going to be carefully watching, because the Minister has explained the change as a cost-cutting exercise."

Reti said that the Ministry for Pacific People's would be "significantly engaged" in building trust in data collection going forward.