Young families increasingly can not afford to live in the city centre, say experts. Photo: RNZ / Marika Khabazi
New Zealand's central cities might have great playgrounds, schools and amenities for kids - but there are a dwindling number of children to use them.
The number of children living in central Auckland and Wellington has dropped sharply in recent years, and the housing market is getting the blame.
Analyst William Bisley said there had been a "precipitous" drop in the number of children in the central Auckland suburbs in the decade to 2023, even while the city was growing.
"Waitematā, Albert-Eden, Ōrākei and Devonport-Takapuna local board areas have top-rated state schools, highly developed public amenities, excellent transport links and proximity to the central city," he said.
"Between 2013 and 2023 these four local boards saw an 8.4 percent decline in children 0-14 compared to general population growth of 4.1 percent. The outer local boards of Howick, Papakura, Hibiscus and Bays, Upper Harbour, Rodney and Franklin saw 27 percent growth in children and general population growth of 33 percent."
That can be seen in some school rolls, too. Ponsonby Primary School has dropped form a roll of 347 in 2010 to 311. Grey Lynn School has dropped from 303 to 276 over the same period.
Bisley said young families increasingly could not afford to live in the city centre.
Central Auckland had a median house price of $1.11 million in the latest Real Estate Institute data, compared to $915,000 in Manukau, $870,000 in Franklin and $850,000 in Waitakere.
Bisley said that, while on average there are 59 children 0-14 for every 100 households across Auckland, this ranges from 20 in Waitematā to 97 in Māngere-Ōtāhuhu.
Waitematā, Albert-Eden, Ōrākei and Devonport-Takapuna are the local board areas with the lowest number of children per household, with each having fewer than 50 children per 100 households.
Albert-Eden had 2500 (14 percent) fewer children in 2023 than a decade earlier, Waitematā 640 (8.1 percent) fewer children, Orakei 850 (5.5 percent) fewer children, and Devonport-Takapuna 330 (3.2 percent) fewer children.
Mother-of-three Mairyn Brittari is one who has had to move further out.
She said she lived in Titirangi while all her family and many friends, as well as her children's father lived in Grey Lynn, Westmere or Ponsonby.
"I work in the city too. I love my home and the forest but I would have chosen round there if it wasn't more than double what I could scrape together. I have a great home, but I do drive a lot."
Planning changes in Auckland to allow more high-rise density around transport hubs would help, Bisley said, and there should be more low-rise density as well.
"I think it would be a real tragedy for the central city suburbs to continue to decline in their population of children… we want kids living in areas where they can walk to school…go to the park afterwards."
Areas such as Herne Bay and Devonport, where there are more limitations on development for heritage protection were particularly affected by the decline in child numbers, with a 33 percent drop in children across the 10 years.
"What is the character we're preserving if families can't live there? If we can't have vibrant populations living there?" Bisley said.
"Some of these central Auckland suburbs such as Herne Bay, Freemans Bay, Ponsonby, have some of the highest land values. If you think about that from an efficiency perspective, the land in these suburbs should be allowed to be put to the highest value use. In some cases that would be increased density. We think that will actually add to the special character amenity of these areas, rather than these ghost towns where there are just two people living in a house which previously might have had children in there too."
Infometrics principal economist Nick Brunsdon said there was a similar change in Wellington. Wellington's central suburbs are also more expensive, at a median $868,000 compared to $850,000 for Porirua, $680,000 for Lower Hut and $695,000 for Upper Hut.
Across Wellington and Horowhenua, the under-15 population fell 1.9 percent between 2015 and 2024.
But in the Wellington suburbs of Ngaio, Island Bay and Haitaitai the drop was more than 20 percent.
Within Porirua, the number of under-15s has grown by 500 in Whitby and by 310 in Aotea - yet one suburb over Waitangirua has fallen 230 and Cannons Creek had fallen 180, Brunsdon said.
"In the case of Waitangirua, Kainga Ora has been redeveloping the significant numbers of public houses in these areas, which has displaced some of their population, at least temporarily.
"Families with children seem to be picking newer greenfield suburbs to settle down in. More established suburbs, especially the more desirable or expensive suburbs seem to have an exodus of children as young families can't afford to buy in these areas."
He said Christchurch was different. Its child population had increased 12.1 percent between 2015 and 2024.
"Christchurch is simply more popular at moment. Greater Christchurch and Wellington Region have a similar 2024 population - 566,200 and 541,500 respectively. Yet over the ten years to 2024, net migration to Wellington Region has totalled just 32,200, compared to 85,700 to Greater Christchurch.
"The fastest growing child populations in Greater Christchurch are in Rolleston South West, Rolleston South East, Halswell, Lincoln and Wigram, which have all added more than 1000 under-15s in the past ten years. Waimakariri District Coast, which includes the new Pegasus and Ravenswood subdivisions, added 900."
Brunsdon said in many cases people had raised a family in the central suburbs and they wanted to continue to live there once their children left home.
"Ultimately that creates a bit of a block in the housing and a) that housing is not becoming available for the younger generations and b) its price is so high that the people that are at the age of having a baby are unlikely to be able to afford to buy into those suburbs."
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