Photo: RNZ
Why the government's much-trumpted power plan to reform the electricity sector is more likely to result in dirtier, more expensive power, than a clean, cheap solution.
Anaylsis: If you were looking for a government-driven solution to soaring electricity bills, you won't have found it in last week's big announcement from Energy Minister Simon Watts.
The government's taken a tiny bite out of a $500,000 review by Frontier - a review that was in turn peer-reviewed and panned by two $100,000 reports. Just two of its eight recommendations have been taken up.
The giant gentailers won't mind though. Their share prices took off after the plan's release.
On Tuesday on The Detail, Newsroom senior political reporter and energy specialist Marc Daalder analyses the announcement he describes as a prescription for dirtier, more expensive power "rather than cheaper, cleaner power that could be available to us".
So was the Frontier Report a complete waste of time and money?
"It's a fair question," says Daalder.
"It certainly doesn't seem to have concluded in the way the government anticipated it to. And I don't know that there are very many people who would have been happy had the full recommendations of the Frontier Report been implemented.
"I don't think it was particularly beneficial for any one player in the market. Maybe unless you're a fossil fuel company, in which case you're probably still happy with what the government's doing anyway."
The report's three key recommendations were that the government divests all its holdings in the gentailers - it holds a 51 percent shareholding; that the government use that money to fund thermal power - gas and coal generation - through contracting or direct ownership; then it should condense the 21 lines companies into five super lines companies.
None of that is going to happen.
"It's not just the government that was unhappy with these solutions," says Daalder.
"There were two peer reviews that were conducted by international energy experts and consultancy firms, and they were, in consultancy speak, pretty scathing about the Frontier Review, saying basically they didn't think there was an evidence base for its diagnosis of what the problems were in the energy market and that they didn't really see or understand how it had got to the conclusions it did about what should be done."
Well, who did this review then?
Frontier Economics are a relatively well respected Australian firm, "but they do have a reputation for ... being very strong on fossil fuels, and gas, coal, and also nuclear ... and very opposed to renewables", Daalder says.
In that case, what is the plan?
"The government's package that it has announced is still very fossil fuel friendly.
"There are two potentially big things that are being done."
One, that is still thin on details, is to launch a procurement process for a Liquified Natural Gas import terminal. It would allow us to import gas from overseas to supplement our domestic supply. At the moment all the gas we use is produced here, but we are running out.
"But there are significant feasibility challenges there."
The other is an announcement from the Finance Minister Nicola Willis that Daalder says could be a big deal - or not. They are promised changes around the regulatory regime to incentivise investment in what's called 'firming generation'.
"That's basically generation that we can turn on and off or up and down with a switch - so it's not solar or wind which only work if the sun is shining or the wind is blowing - but it's more something like gas or coal or maybe diesel or hydro."
The firming generation would even out those peaks and troughs that make winter power prices in dry times soar.
"But again the details are really thin here, we don't know what options are on the table, we don't really know a solid time line for something that might be in place."
In the podcast Daalder picks apart the announcement for its vagueness and asks if the solutions were really problems in the first place.
Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail here.
You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on Facebook
