Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (L) and Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Photo: RNZ
With a year to go until the next election, the government is under polling pressure with whispers the Prime Minister could be rolled, and the opposition still finding its voice
A year out from the next general election, New Zealand's political weather is unsettled.
Strikes have returned - last week's mega strike sentiment remains raw - inflation continues to rise, and the cost of living remains stubbornly high.
The country is feeling restless and tired, not just of politics, but of politicians.
The public mood is "one of disillusionment with a lot of the political scene, frankly", former political editor turned RNZ investigative reporter and host Guyon Espiner tells The Detail.
"Possibly, one of the best illustrations of that is the support - or lack of - for the two major parties," he says. "Often, that is around 80 percent, and then that last 20 is divided up, the scraps, between the other smaller MMP players.
"At the moment, it is closer to 60 percent. People really aren't engaging with National or Labour, and that reflects, I think, a disillusionment with where we are going and the polls back that up ... there is a sense that New Zealand is a bit broken at the moment."
Polls show the government clinging to a narrow lead over a resurgent opposition bloc, but often Prime Minister Christopher Luxon lags behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime minister stakes: one recent poll had him on 37 percent to Hipkins' 43 percent.
Espiner describes this as "dreadful".
"To be behind or level with Labour, at this point, is a real problem. And he's struggling to connect and struggling to make those gains".
He says there's a "serious possibility" that Luxon could be rolled as leader before we head to the polls again. If this did happen, he predicts Education Minister Erica Stanford could replace him, with Chris Bishop as her deputy and Finance Minister.
"You could configure it any number of ways, but she is obviously in most people's books, when you look at commentators and people who follow these things closely, one of the stand-out ministers and possibly someone who could engage with New Zealand at a level that could see them rising into the 40s."
Across the aisle, Labour is rebuilding slowly. But a big issue for the party next year will be finding coalition partners, with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori both courting negative headlines and controversy this year.
"This has hit on one of the key questions for any potential alternative left-of-centre government, and that is one of the biggest challenges that Chris Hipkins will face," says Espiner.
"Probably not so much with the Greens, although they have had a terrible year losing a lot of MPs, but they have been in Labour-led governments before, and they are slightly a known quantity.
"Te Pāti Māori are a real issue. They are having their own huge ructions at the moment.
"A lot of their ideas are ideas that are going to turn off people who decide elections in the middle, if you like, the so-called 'mythical middle New Zealand voter'.
"I would have thought that, at some point, Hipkins is going to have to come out and say 'Te Pāti Māori won't be in the executive', I would have thought that was the cleanest way for him to deal with that."
Among the big issues for the next election, he says, will be the economy and healthcare.
"Cost of living has been the top issue, and I expect that to remain so, as we head into next year".
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